Bottom Line
Impactful winter weather, including significant snowfall accumulation, is expected across a good portion of North Texas late Wednesday through early Friday.
Overview
- A strong upper storm system will move out of northwest Mexico and into Texas late Wednesday.
- Temperatures are expected to fall well below freezing Wednesday night as moisture increases into the region. Areas of snow are likely to develop Wednesday night into Thursday morning and increase in coverage and intensity throughout the day.
- There is a low chance that wintry precipitation could start west of Interstate 35 as early as Wednesday afternoon, but this initially would be very light and unlikely to accumulate.
- Temperatures will increase slightly during the day Thursday, perhaps to near or above freezing. While snow should continue as the main precipitation type in North Texas, a rain/snow mix is more likely across our Central Texas counties. Some light icing or sleet will also be possible in Central Texas.
- Snowfall may become heavy at times during the day Thursday across parts of North Texas.
- The current forecast is for 1-4 inches of snowfall accumulation from the Metroplex north and west. Lighter amounts are expected in Central Texas.
- There is some potential (~30%) for accumulations to exceed 6 inches west and northwest of the Metroplex.
- Snow or a combination of snow and ice will likely result in widespread impacts to travel. Any partial melting that occurs would be capable of refreezing Thursday night as overnight temperatures fall to 25-30 degrees.
- Travel impacts will continue into Friday while wintry precipitation gradually comes to an end from west to east.
General Timing
What We Are Certain Of
- Wintry precipitation is likely across most of North and Central Texas from late Wednesday through Friday morning.
- Accumulating snowfall will be the predominant precipitation type in North Texas, with a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and rain farther south into Central Texas.
- Impacts to travel are expected.
What We Are Less Certain Of
- There is uncertainty on near-surface temperatures during the event, which will dictate where the precipitation transition zone occurs. This may shift a narrow corridor of a wintry mix (some sleet and freezing rain) slightly north or south.
- Precise snow/ice amounts are uncertain, but confidence is increasing in some localized snow totals exceeding 6 inches in parts of North Texas.
Bottom Line
Impactful winter weather, including significant snowfall accumulation, is expected across a good portion of North and Central Texas late Wednesday through early Friday.